Nba Teaser

Free NBA Picks Over Under. NBA over/under betting is arguably the most exhilarating of all the North American sports. On any given night in the NBA, you might see an 85-81 contest in one game compared to a 218-205 score in another. NBA totals picks can be legitimately won. Oct 23, 2018 By teasing across three and seven, the teaser covers the top two outcomes, and with the extra point being moved back, the newest key number, six. For a 6 point teaser to break even, bettors must win each single leg 72.3% of the time. With teasers, all teams need to beat the adjusted spread for you to win. A $100 teaser in the above 3-team/5-point teaser would pay out $150 in winnings. Sportsbooks can vary on some of this, namely their exact payout schedule and other major concerns like whether a tie results in a push or a loss. Here are the general payouts on basketball teasers.

• Basketball Teaser Odds
• Original Basketball Teams
• Nba Teaser Bets
• Nba Teaser Odds

Introduction

This page addresses betting on basketball, specifically the NBA. The figures in this pages are based on 6,567 historical games, from seasons beginning 2013 to 2017. It is assumed the reader knows basic sports betting terminology. If this is not the case, please visit my page on sports betting first.

Betting Against the Spread

On average, the home team wins 58.4% of the time and scores 2.70 more points than the road team. However, betting against the spread, I show road teams to be the much better value, as the following table shows. The table is based on laying 11 to win 10. The return column shows the expected percentage of money won (or lost when negative) to money bet. As you can see, betting home teams has a house edge of 6.22%, while road teams are only 2.70%.

Road or Home Team Against the Spread

The next table shows the results betting on underdogs and favorites against the spread. This does not include the 61 games where the point spread was zero. I was expecting underdogs to do significantly better, but the results proved me wrong — they did only slightly better. As you can see, the probability of the underdog winning was only 0.4% greater than favorites. The return shows the ratio of expected player win (negative indicates a loss) to money bet, assuming the player is laying 11 to win 10.

Underdog or Favorite Against the Spread

Overs and Unders

The following table shows how often each game went over, under, and fell exactly on the over/under line. The return column shows the ratio of player win to money bet, assuming laying 11 to win 10. Not surprisingly, the table shows betting the under side to be the slightly better value, with a probability of winning 0.21% higher than over bets.

Under or Over Against the Total

Money Line

The following table shows the expected return on money line bets, assuming one unit is bet per game. The return shows that betting road teams is the better value, with an expected return 0.53% higher.

Money Line by Side

The next table shows the expected return on money line bets, cut by whether the team is the underdog, favorite, or even. Surprisingly, to me at least, the table shows favorites to be the better value, with a return 0.46% higher.

Money Line by Favorite/Underdog

The next table shows the actual and estimated probability of winning by point spread. The estimated probability uses logistic regression to smooth out the ups and downs.

Probability of Winning by Point Spread

In the unlikely event you encounter a point spread with an absolute value greater than 15.5, then the probability of winning can be estimated as e^(-0.16*s)/(1+e^(-0.16*s)), where s is the point spread.

Internal Links

When I updated this page in 2018, there were a lot of obscure tables I was too lazy to update. However, I put too much effort into them at the time I made them to just throw them away. So, I split this off to Obscure Topics in Betting the NBA.

Previously, I published a comprehensive article on teaser betting strategy which explains what teasers are, who has the best odds, how to analyze teaser bets on an advanced level, blind teaser bets that are likely profitable, industry secrets and more. If you haven't read that article, I strongly suggest doing so before continuing.

Now, moving forward, a topic I didn't discuss in any detail was special teasers. These are the ones referred to at sports betting sites as 'sweetheart teasers' and 'monster teasers'. The name is not a standard, but the concept is the same. If you're not familiar with these, a common example is a 10 point three team NFL teaser, generally offered at -110 to -130 pricing.

Basketball Teaser Odds

To give a further example, there are 3 teams you're interested in betting this week: Jets +1.5, Ravens -11.5, and Patriots -2.5. Rather than betting these straight at -110 or -105, or putting them in a standard parlay, or standard teaser, you can put them in what many sites call a special, monster, or sweetheart teaser. If you do so, you'll have a single bet of: Jets +11, Ravens -1.5, Patriots +7.5; each spread has been moved 10 points. Once again, you'll need to risk between $11 and $13 per $10 you want to win, depending if the betting site offers these at -110, -120, -130.

This is only one example of a sweetheart teaser. Some sites also offer four team 13 point teasers, while 5dimes.eu offers teaser betting for 2-15 teams on every half point between 5.5 and 17, as well as a 20 point teaser option. While teaser options vary site to site, the 3 team ten point option is offered by many local bookies and most online betting sites. For that reason, I'll use that as my example of how to calculate the value of sweetheart teasers.

St. Mary. Ties Often Lose

The first thing you need to know about sweetheart teasers is that, generally, ties lose. This is not the case at all sites, but it is at many of them, so pay close attention to the rules.

Money Line by Favorite/Underdog

The next table shows the actual and estimated probability of winning by point spread. The estimated probability uses logistic regression to smooth out the ups and downs.

Probability of Winning by Point Spread

In the unlikely event you encounter a point spread with an absolute value greater than 15.5, then the probability of winning can be estimated as e^(-0.16*s)/(1+e^(-0.16*s)), where s is the point spread.

Internal Links

When I updated this page in 2018, there were a lot of obscure tables I was too lazy to update. However, I put too much effort into them at the time I made them to just throw them away. So, I split this off to Obscure Topics in Betting the NBA.

Previously, I published a comprehensive article on teaser betting strategy which explains what teasers are, who has the best odds, how to analyze teaser bets on an advanced level, blind teaser bets that are likely profitable, industry secrets and more. If you haven't read that article, I strongly suggest doing so before continuing.

Now, moving forward, a topic I didn't discuss in any detail was special teasers. These are the ones referred to at sports betting sites as 'sweetheart teasers' and 'monster teasers'. The name is not a standard, but the concept is the same. If you're not familiar with these, a common example is a 10 point three team NFL teaser, generally offered at -110 to -130 pricing.

Basketball Teaser Odds

To give a further example, there are 3 teams you're interested in betting this week: Jets +1.5, Ravens -11.5, and Patriots -2.5. Rather than betting these straight at -110 or -105, or putting them in a standard parlay, or standard teaser, you can put them in what many sites call a special, monster, or sweetheart teaser. If you do so, you'll have a single bet of: Jets +11, Ravens -1.5, Patriots +7.5; each spread has been moved 10 points. Once again, you'll need to risk between $11 and $13 per $10 you want to win, depending if the betting site offers these at -110, -120, -130.

This is only one example of a sweetheart teaser. Some sites also offer four team 13 point teasers, while 5dimes.eu offers teaser betting for 2-15 teams on every half point between 5.5 and 17, as well as a 20 point teaser option. While teaser options vary site to site, the 3 team ten point option is offered by many local bookies and most online betting sites. For that reason, I'll use that as my example of how to calculate the value of sweetheart teasers.

St. Mary. Ties Often Lose

The first thing you need to know about sweetheart teasers is that, generally, ties lose. This is not the case at all sites, but it is at many of them, so pay close attention to the rules.

Best Sites for 10 Point Teasers

Here are the odds and rules for 10 point sweetheart teasers at four of our recommended betting sites:

www.Bovada.lv – 10 point three team teasers at -110 (Ties Lose)
Sportsbook – 10 point three team teasers at -120 (Ties Lose)
5Dimes.eu – 10 point three team teasers at -110 (Ties Lose)
Bookmaker.eu – 10 point three team teasers at -120 (Ties Reduce)

Sportsbook obviously offers poor odds for this wager type. These guys are good in other areas, but for this type of teaser we'll leave them out. Bookmaker also offers worse odds, but has its advantages. At Bookmaker these teasers can be bet for as much as $20,000 per bet, while most other sites have $500 max limits. Also Bookmaker has ties reduce, meaning if one or more legs push while all others win, the bet is refunded. However, at -120 this is not enough to make it worth it, so for most, www.Bovada.lv and 5Dimes.eu are the best sites for monster teasers.

Are Sweetheart Teasers Sucker Bets?

For years I heard Sweetheart teasers are sucker bets, but to be honest I hadn't looked at them in any great detail until writing this article. So with that, let's go ahead and take a look together:

Now we already know, or at least should know, considering it's the most common price charged in sports betting, that at -110 you'll need to win 52.38% of your bets to break even over the long run. When there are three bets which are part of that -110 wager, what we need to do is convert 52.38% into a decimal of .5238 and then find which number times itself three times equals .5238, or in math terms: what is the cube root of .5238. Using a cube root calculator, I quickly determined that .8061 x .8061 x .8061 = .5238. Therefore, for a leg in a three team teaser at -110 to have neutral expected value, it must win 80.61% of the time.

After doing this math, I'm already discouraged. It seems rare that I'm going to pick up an extra 30.61% in win probability by adding 10 points, especially when pushes count as losses. I decided, however, to make an educated guess of which subsets of point spreads have the most value in a 10 point teaser. Now, what I know is that in the NFL the most common margin of victories in order are: 3, 7, 10, 6, 14, 4, 1, 17, 13 and 2. So I want to come up with subsets that cross as many of these key numbers as possible. The six that I decided were most likely to have value, if any subset has value at all, are-10.5 to -12.5 favorites, -1.5 to -2.5 favorites, -4.5 to -6.5 favorites, +4.5 to +5.5 underdogs, +7.5 to +9.5 underdogs and +11.5 to +12.5 underdogs.

My next step was looking at tons of historical data to determine how often teams push at each number crossed in a ten point teaser, and then add them together to get a rough idea if teasing that subset with ten points might have value. After doing, this I eliminated the -1.5 to -2.5 and the +7.5 to +9.5 subsets; teasing those ten points only increased their win rates by around 17%. The other four subsets were close enough to warrant a more detailed analysis.

Original Basketball Teams

As a professional gambler I've been compiling NFL statistics for years into databases I can use for analysis when needed. While this might sounds complex, for calculating teasers, push probabilities, etc., it is really not all that difficult. While I can't confirm their accuracy, I've heard many recommend atsdatabase.com and sportsdatabase.com for NFL data. Heading to my database, I was able to find the following historical results for 10 point teasers:

-10.5 to -12.5 teased 10 points
Since 2006: 53-15 (77.94%)
Since 2001: 97-30 (76.37%)

-4.5 to -6.5 teased 10 points: (32.7% at -6.5) to (31.6% at -4.5)
Since 2006: 210-61 (77.49%)
Since 2001: 391-108 (78.36%)

+4.5 to +5.5 teased 10 points:
Since 2006: 96-24 (80.00%)
Since 2001: 213-58 (78.60%)

Football betting terms. +11.5 to +12.5 teased 10 points:
Since 2006: 24-8 (75%)
Since 2001: 41-11 (78.85)

Nba Teaser Bets

I've now dug into these enough to determine with 98 percent certainty, there is no value to be had in standard three team ten point teasers.

Hopefully, this is not too discouraging. A thinking sports bettor, one who often makes the most profit, is someone who has lots of ideas, curiosities, theories and hunches. Rather than betting these and seeing if they win, they get out a blank sheet of paper, a few spread sheets, etc. and run tests. Bookies are smart, so more times than not we're going to be disappointed in finding out that our brilliant idea was not +EV.

The good news is that as we practice our skills and as our knowledge grows, in time we can spot +EV bets much quicker. As far as teasers go, outside the box +EV teasers exist on a weekly basis.

5Dimes.eu has 560 different types of teasers available. They offer 2-15 team teasers on every half point between 5 and 17, and also 20 point teasers, with two different formats regarding ties for each. While initially doing the work takes some time, and it might be a 'tough way to make an easy living', becoming an expert at football teasers and then managing your bankroll will make you easy money over time.

Now, if you're a recreational bettor just looking for blind bets, stick to the strategies we mention in our teaser strategy guide. In that same article, those of you aspiring to or currently betting professionally can find further advanced strategies.

Nba Teaser Odds

Remember teaser betting often wins in streaks; don't get over confident or carried away with your bankroll. Bet responsibly, and we wish you the best of luck!

Other Advanced Sports Betting Strategy Articles:
» Future Betting Strategy
» NFL Bye Week Betting Strategy
» Parlay Betting Strategy